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Nublense vs U. Concepcion Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Matchday 13 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 19:00

Nublense

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWLL

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

U. Concepcion

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLWL

// Model verdict

Home 55% chance

Model probability 50.1% vs bookmaker-implied 57.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.6%0-19.0%0-23.5%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.0%1-112.4%1-24.8%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.1%2-18.6%2-23.3%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.1%3-13.9%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-11.8%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.1% 57.5% 1.74 -12.8%

Draw 26.3% 29.4% 3.40 -6.3%

Away win 23.6% 22.2% 4.50 +3.7%

Over 2.5 46.2% 47.6% 2.10 -3.0%

Over 3.5 17.2% 27.0% 3.70 -21.8%

BTTS 48.6% 52.6% 1.90 -7.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 81 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 0.5%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.6%

H 50% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 16.0%

#3 0–0 11.6%

#4 2–0 11.1%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nublense1.4

U. Concepcion0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 17.2%

Form & verdict PPG

NUBLENSE · PPG 1.33

U. CONCEPCION · PPG 0.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

55%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away POOR (0.83)

Win probability 1X2

Nublense (H) 50.1%

ODDS 1.74 · IMPLIED 57.5% EV -12.8%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -6.3%

U. Concepcion (A) 23.6%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +3.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nublense face U. Concepcion in Chile - Primera División on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nublense a 50% chance, the draw 26% and U. Concepcion 24%, so Nublense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Nublense and 0.8 for U. Concepcion (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nublense are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.83 for U. Concepcion. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +3.7%. This match finished 2-2.

Nublense vs U. Concepcion Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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