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Fluminense W vs Bahia W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Regular Season - 12 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 19:00

Fluminense W

PPG 1.40 · HOME

3 – 3

FULL TIME

Bahia W

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.6%0-114.6%0-28.4%0-33.3%0-4+1.2%1 1-011.5%1-113.3%1-27.7%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-05.3%2-16.1%2-23.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-01.6%3-11.9%3-21.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.7% 45.5% 2.20 -32.5%

Draw 30.5% 31.3% 3.20 -2.4%

Away win 38.8% 33.3% 3.00 +16.4%

Over 2.5 46.2% 51.8% 1.93 -10.8%

Over 3.5 15.5% 30.3% 3.30 -29.3%

BTTS 48.6% 58.8% 1.70 -17.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -30.5%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob48.6%

D 30% / xG 0.9-1.2 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 12.6%

#3 0–1 14.6%

#4 1–0 11.5%

#5 0–2 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fluminense W0.9

Bahia W1.2

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 15.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FLUMINENSE W · PPG 1.40

BAHIA W · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.40) vs Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Fluminense W (H) 30.7%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -32.5%

Draw 30.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -2.4%

Bahia W (A) 38.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +16.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fluminense W face Bahia W in Brazil - Brasileiro Women on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fluminense W a 31% chance, the draw 31% and Bahia W 39%, so Bahia W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Fluminense W and 1.2 for Bahia W (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fluminense W are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.75 for Bahia W. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +16.4%. This match finished 3-3.

Fluminense W vs Bahia W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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