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Audax Italiano vs Cobresal Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 16:30

Audax Italiano

PPG 1.67 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Cobresal

PPG 0.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+15.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-14.0%0-22.4%0-31.0%0-4+0.4%1 1-07.2%1-18.8%1-25.4%1-32.2%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.9%2-19.7%2-25.9%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-05.8%3-17.1%3-24.3%3-31.8%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-05.3%4+-16.5%4+-24.0%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.9% 58.1% 1.72 -10.7%

Draw 23.7% 27.8% 3.60 -8.8%

Away win 24.4% 23.1% 4.33 +3.4%

Over 2.5 63.9% 55.6% 1.80 +15.0%

Over 3.5 44.5% 33.3% 3.00 +33.5%

BTTS 59.7% 58.8% 1.70 +1.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 27%

ROI 10.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob59.7%

H 52% / xG 2.2-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.8%

#2 2–1✓ 9.7%

#3 2–0 7.9%

#4 3–1 7.1%

#5 2–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Audax Italiano2.2

Cobresal1.2

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

AUDAX ITALIANO · PPG 1.67

COBRESAL · PPG 0.17

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.67) vs P(Home)=51.9%

Win probability 1X2

Audax Italiano (H) 51.9%

ODDS 1.72 · IMPLIED 58.1% EV -10.7%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -8.8%

Cobresal (A) 24.4%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +3.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Audax Italiano face Cobresal in Chile - Primera División on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Audax Italiano a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Cobresal 24%, so Audax Italiano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Audax Italiano and 1.2 for Cobresal (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Audax Italiano are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.17 for Cobresal. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +33.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Audax Italiano vs Cobresal Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Chile - Primera División Predictions