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Audax Italiano vs Cobresal Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Matchday 13 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 16:30

Audax Italiano

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDDL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Cobresal

PPG 0.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 58% chance

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+15.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-14.0%0-22.4%0-31.0%0-4+0.4%1 1-07.2%1-18.8%1-25.4%1-32.2%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.9%2-19.7%2-25.9%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-05.8%3-17.1%3-24.3%3-31.8%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-05.3%4+-16.5%4+-24.0%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.9% 58.1% 1.72 -10.7%

Draw 23.7% 27.8% 3.60 -8.8%

Away win 24.4% 23.1% 4.33 +3.4%

Over 2.5 63.9% 55.6% 1.80 +15.0%

Over 3.5 44.5% 33.3% 3.00 +33.5%

BTTS 59.7% 58.8% 1.70 +1.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 81 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 0.5%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob59.7%

H 52% / xG 2.2-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.8%

#2 2–1✓ 9.7%

#3 2–0 7.9%

#4 3–1 7.1%

#5 2–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Audax Italiano2.2

Cobresal1.2

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

AUDAX ITALIANO · PPG 1.67

COBRESAL · PPG 0.17

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

Chance this pick lands

58%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.67) vs P(Home)=51.9%

Win probability 1X2

Audax Italiano (H) 51.9%

ODDS 1.72 · IMPLIED 58.1% EV -10.7%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -8.8%

Cobresal (A) 24.4%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +3.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Audax Italiano face Cobresal in Chile - Primera División on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Audax Italiano a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Cobresal 24%, so Audax Italiano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Audax Italiano and 1.2 for Cobresal (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Audax Italiano are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.17 for Cobresal. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +33.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Audax Italiano vs Cobresal Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Chile - Primera División Predictions