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Waldgirmes vs Marburg Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hessen

Hessen - 33 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 15:30

Waldgirmes

PPG 1.06 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Marburg

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-15.7%0-24.5%0-32.4%0-4+1.3%1 1-06.3%1-110.0%1-27.9%1-34.1%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.5%2-18.6%2-26.8%2-33.6%2-4+2.0%3 3-03.2%3-15.0%3-24.0%3-32.1%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-13.2%4+-22.5%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.4% — — —

Draw 23.1% — — —

Away win 34.5% — — —

Over 2.5 61.4% — — —

Over 3.5 42.3% — — —

BTTS 59.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob59.7%

H 42% / xG 1.7-1.6 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 7.9%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 2–0 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Waldgirmes1.7

Marburg1.6

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 42.3%

Form & verdict PPG

WALDGIRMES · PPG 1.06

MARBURG · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.06), Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Waldgirmes (H) 42.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Marburg (A) 34.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Waldgirmes face Marburg in Germany - Oberliga - Hessen on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Waldgirmes a 42% chance, the draw 23% and Marburg 35%, so Waldgirmes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Waldgirmes and 1.6 for Marburg (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Waldgirmes are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 1.13 for Marburg. This match finished 0-1.

Waldgirmes vs Marburg Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hessen

Match Preview & Prediction

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