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Urk vs Excelsior 31 Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday

Group A - 34 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 13:30

Urk

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Excelsior 31

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-12.5%0-23.0%0-32.4%0-4+2.5%1 1-02.3%1-15.4%1-26.5%1-35.2%1-4+5.5%2 2-02.4%2-15.9%2-27.0%2-35.6%2-4+5.9%3 3-01.8%3-14.2%3-25.1%3-34.0%3-4+4.3%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-13.8%4+-24.5%4+-33.6%4+-4+3.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.9% — — —

Draw 22.5% — — —

Away win 41.5% — — —

Over 2.5 70.9% — — —

Over 3.5 66.8% — — —

BTTS 66.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -53.7%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob66.7%

A 42% / xG 2.2-2.4 / O2.5 71% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 7.0%

#2 1–2✓ 6.5%

#3 1–1 5.4%

#4 2–1 5.9%

#5 2–3 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Urk2.2

Excelsior 312.4

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 70.9% · O3.5 PROB 66.8%

Form & verdict PPG

URK · PPG 1.00

EXCELSIOR 31 · PPG 1.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.06)

Win probability 1X2

Urk (H) 35.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Excelsior 31 (A) 41.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Urk face Excelsior 31 in Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Urk a 36% chance, the draw 23% and Excelsior 31 42%, so Excelsior 31 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Urk and 2.4 for Excelsior 31 (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Urk are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.06 for Excelsior 31. This match finished 1-2.

Urk vs Excelsior 31 Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday

Match Preview & Prediction

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