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TEC vs USV Hercules Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday

Group A - 34 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 13:30

TEC

PPG 0.88 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

USV Hercules

PPG 0.63 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-15.4%0-24.7%0-32.7%0-4+1.7%1 1-05.5%1-19.4%1-28.1%1-34.6%1-4+2.9%2 2-04.7%2-18.2%2-27.0%2-34.0%2-4+2.6%3 3-02.8%3-14.7%3-24.1%3-32.3%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-13.0%4+-22.6%4+-31.5%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.5% — — —

Draw 24.4% — — —

Away win 37.1% — — —

Over 2.5 63.9% — — —

Over 3.5 45.5% — — —

BTTS 62.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -53.7%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob62.5%

H 38% / xG 1.7-1.7 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 2–1 8.2%

#3 1–2 8.1%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 2–0 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

TEC1.7

USV Hercules1.7

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 45.5%

Form & verdict PPG

TEC · PPG 0.88

USV HERCULES · PPG 0.63

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.88), Away POOR (0.63)

Win probability 1X2

TEC (H) 38.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

USV Hercules (A) 37.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

TEC face USV Hercules in Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives TEC a 39% chance, the draw 24% and USV Hercules 37%, so TEC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for TEC and 1.7 for USV Hercules (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, TEC are averaging 0.88 points per game versus 0.63 for USV Hercules. This match finished 0-0.

TEC vs USV Hercules Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday

Match Preview & Prediction

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