Today / Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday / Staphorst vs Raalte

Staphorst vs Raalte Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday

Group A - 34 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 13:30

Staphorst

PPG 1.75 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Raalte

PPG 1.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-16.9%0-26.0%0-33.5%0-4+2.3%1 1-05.9%1-110.2%1-28.9%1-35.2%1-4+3.4%2 2-04.3%2-17.6%2-26.6%2-33.9%2-4+2.5%3 3-02.2%3-13.8%3-23.3%3-31.9%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.9%4+-21.7%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.0% — — —

Draw 23.9% — — —

Away win 41.1% — — —

Over 2.5 61.4% — — —

Over 3.5 40.5% — — —

BTTS 59.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -53.7%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob59.7%

A 41% / xG 1.5-1.7 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 2–1✓ 7.6%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 0–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Staphorst1.5

Raalte1.7

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 40.5%

Form & verdict PPG

STAPHORST · PPG 1.75

RAALTE · PPG 1.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.75), Away GOOD (1.88)

Win probability 1X2

Staphorst (H) 35.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Raalte (A) 41.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Staphorst face Raalte in Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Staphorst a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Raalte 41%, so Raalte are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Staphorst and 1.7 for Raalte (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Staphorst are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.88 for Raalte. This match finished 2-1.

Staphorst vs Raalte Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday

Match Preview & Prediction

More Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday Predictions