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Sparta Nijkerk vs Eemdijk Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday

Group A - 34 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 13:30

Sparta Nijkerk

PPG 1.94 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Eemdijk

PPG 1.69 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-12.4%0-21.8%0-30.9%0-4+0.5%1 1-04.2%1-16.4%1-24.8%1-32.4%1-4+1.3%2 2-05.6%2-18.4%2-26.3%2-33.1%2-4+1.7%3 3-04.9%3-17.3%3-25.5%3-32.7%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-06.0%4+-19.0%4+-26.7%4+-33.4%4+-4+1.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.5% — — —

Draw 22.8% — — —

Away win 24.7% — — —

Over 2.5 63.9% — — —

Over 3.5 59.0% — — —

BTTS 63.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -53.7%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.0%

H 52% / xG 2.6-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.4%

#2 1–1 6.4%

#3 3–1✓ 7.3%

#4 2–2 6.3%

#5 2–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sparta Nijkerk2.6

Eemdijk1.5

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 59.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SPARTA NIJKERK · PPG 1.94

EEMDIJK · PPG 1.69

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.94), Away GOOD (1.69)

Win probability 1X2

Sparta Nijkerk (H) 52.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Eemdijk (A) 24.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sparta Nijkerk face Eemdijk in Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sparta Nijkerk a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Eemdijk 25%, so Sparta Nijkerk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Sparta Nijkerk and 1.5 for Eemdijk (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sparta Nijkerk are averaging 1.94 points per game versus 1.69 for Eemdijk. This match finished 3-1.

Sparta Nijkerk vs Eemdijk Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday

Match Preview & Prediction

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