Today / Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand / Ragsved vs Nykoping

Ragsved vs Nykoping Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Södra Svealand - 9 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 14:30

Ragsved

PPG 2.40 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Nykoping

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.1% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-19.4%0-25.4%0-32.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.1%1-112.7%1-27.3%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.5%2-18.6%2-24.9%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.4%3-13.9%3-22.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.8%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.0% 51.3% 1.95 -12.3%

Draw 28.2% 27.4% 3.65 +1.8%

Away win 26.9% 31.3% 3.20 -8.3%

Over 2.5 47.6% 66.7% 1.50 -28.6%

Over 3.5 24.2% 44.4% 2.25 -27.3%

BTTS 52.1% 70.4% 1.42 -26.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -7.4%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.1%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 8.2%

#3 1–0 11.1%

#4 2–1 8.6%

#5 2–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ragsved1.4

Nykoping1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 24.2%

Form & verdict PPG

RAGSVED · PPG 2.40

NYKOPING · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.40) vs P(Home)=45.0%

Win probability 1X2

Ragsved (H) 45.0%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -12.3%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +1.8%

Nykoping (A) 26.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -8.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ragsved face Nykoping in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ragsved a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Nykoping 27%, so Ragsved are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Ragsved and 1.1 for Nykoping (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ragsved are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 1.33 for Nykoping. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +1.8%. This match finished 1-2.

Ragsved vs Nykoping Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

More Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand Predictions