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Smedby vs Syrianska Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Södra Svealand - 9 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 14:00

Smedby

PPG 2.25 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Syrianska

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 73.4% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-11.2%0-20.8%0-30.3%0-4+0.2%1 1-03.0%1-14.0%1-22.6%1-31.2%1-4+0.5%2 2-05.1%2-16.8%2-24.5%2-32.0%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.8%3-17.7%3-25.1%3-32.2%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-011.8%4+-115.6%4+-210.3%4+-34.5%4+-4+2.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.9% 57.1% 1.75 +8.3%

Draw 20.3% 24.4% 4.10 -10.1%

Away win 17.8% 28.2% 3.55 -22.1%

Over 2.5 73.4% 73.5% 1.36 -0.2%

Over 3.5 69.4% 51.8% 1.93 +33.9%

BTTS 62.8% 73.5% 1.36 -14.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -7.4%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)3.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob62.8%

H 62% / xG 3.4-1.3 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.7%

#2 2–1 6.8%

#3 4–1 6.5%

#4 3–0 5.8%

#5 2–0 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Smedby3.4

Syrianska1.3

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.4% · O3.5 PROB 69.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SMEDBY · PPG 2.25

SYRIANSKA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs P(Home)=61.9%

Win probability 1X2

Smedby (H) 61.9%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV +8.3%

Draw 20.3%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -10.1%

Syrianska (A) 17.8%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -22.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Smedby face Syrianska in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Smedby a 62% chance, the draw 20% and Syrianska 18%, so Smedby are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.4 for Smedby and 1.3 for Syrianska (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Smedby are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.00 for Syrianska. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +33.9%. This match finished 4-0.

Smedby vs Syrianska Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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