Smedby vs Syrianska Prediction & Tips

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Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand Södra Svealand - 9 Saturday, May 23, 2026 14:00

Smedby PPG 2.25

4-0 MISS

Syrianska PPG 1.00

Over3.5· +33.9% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 61.9%

Odds: 1.75 EV: +8.3%

Draw 20.3%

Odds: 4.10 EV: -10.1%

Away 17.8%

Odds: 3.55 EV: -22.1%

Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 73.4% Odds: 1.36 -0.2%

Over 3.5 69.4% Odds: 1.93 +33.9%

BTTS 62.8% Odds: 1.36 -14.6%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 3-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 4-1 ✘

4th 3-0 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Smedby

3.40

Syrianska

1.32

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 -0.2% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-0.2%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs P(Home)=61.9%