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Orebro S. vs Fittja IF Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Södra Svealand - 9 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 14:00

Orebro S.

PPG 1.33 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Fittja IF

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-13.8%0-22.6%0-31.2%0-4+0.5%1 1-06.3%1-18.5%1-25.7%1-32.6%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.9%2-19.4%2-26.3%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-05.1%3-16.9%3-24.7%3-32.1%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-16.4%4+-24.3%4+-31.9%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.9% 54.6% 1.83 -5.0%

Draw 23.7% 25.6% 3.90 -4.5%

Away win 24.4% 29.9% 3.35 -11.0%

Over 2.5 63.9% 70.4% 1.42 -9.3%

Over 3.5 47.7% 48.8% 2.05 -2.2%

BTTS 59.7% 71.4% 1.40 -16.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -7.4%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.7%

H 52% / xG 2.2-1.3 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.5%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 6.9%

#4 3–1 6.9%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orebro S.2.2

Fittja IF1.3

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 47.7%

Form & verdict PPG

OREBRO S. · PPG 1.33

FITTJA IF · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Orebro S. (H) 51.9%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -5.0%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -4.5%

Fittja IF (A) 24.4%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -11.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Orebro S. face Fittja IF in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orebro S. a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Fittja IF 24%, so Orebro S. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Orebro S. and 1.3 for Fittja IF (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orebro S. are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.00 for Fittja IF. This match finished 1-0.

Orebro S. vs Fittja IF Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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