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Stenungsund vs Lidkoping Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Norra Götaland - 9 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 14:00

Stenungsund

PPG 2.00 · HOME

6 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Lidkoping

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.1% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-15.9%0-23.3%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.8%1-110.8%1-25.9%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.9%2-19.8%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.4%3-16.0%3-23.3%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-14.1%4+-22.3%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.5% 45.5% 2.20 +13.3%

Draw 24.2% 27.8% 3.60 -7.7%

Away win 24.3% 36.4% 2.75 -19.9%

Over 2.5 59.1% 67.6% 1.48 -12.5%

Over 3.5 33.5% 45.5% 2.20 -26.3%

BTTS 54.6% 71.4% 1.40 -23.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -16.3%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 52% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.9%

#4 1–0 9.8%

#5 0–0 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stenungsund1.8

Lidkoping1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.5%

Form & verdict PPG

STENUNGSUND · PPG 2.00

LIDKOPING · PPG 1.00

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=51.5%

Win probability 1X2

Stenungsund (H) 51.5%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +13.3%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -7.7%

Lidkoping (A) 24.3%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -19.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stenungsund face Lidkoping in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stenungsund a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Lidkoping 24%, so Stenungsund are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Stenungsund and 1.1 for Lidkoping (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stenungsund are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Lidkoping. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +13.3%. This match finished 6-0.

Stenungsund vs Lidkoping Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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