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Grebbestad vs Motala Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Norra Götaland - 9 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 14:00

Grebbestad

PPG 1.75 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Motala

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-17.9%0-25.5%0-32.5%0-4+1.2%1 1-08.5%1-111.7%1-28.1%1-33.7%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.3%2-18.6%2-26.0%2-32.7%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.1%3-14.3%3-22.9%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.2%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.6% 39.2% 2.55 -1.6%

Draw 25.7% 27.4% 3.65 -3.7%

Away win 35.7% 43.5% 2.30 -17.9%

Over 2.5 55.1% 67.6% 1.48 -18.4%

Over 3.5 32.1% 45.5% 2.20 -29.4%

BTTS 59.7% 71.4% 1.40 -16.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -16.3%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob59.7%

H 39% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 8.1%

#4 0–0 5.7%

#5 1–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Grebbestad1.5

Motala1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.1% · O3.5 PROB 32.1%

Form & verdict PPG

GREBBESTAD · PPG 1.75

MOTALA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.75) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Grebbestad (H) 38.6%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -1.6%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -3.7%

Motala (A) 35.7%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -17.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Grebbestad face Motala in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Grebbestad a 39% chance, the draw 26% and Motala 36%, so Grebbestad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Grebbestad and 1.4 for Motala (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Grebbestad are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.00 for Motala. This match finished 2-0.

Grebbestad vs Motala Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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