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Suduva vs Kauno Zalgiris Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 11:15

Suduva

PPG 2.14 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Kauno Zalgiris

PPG 2.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.1%0-114.3%0-29.2%0-33.9%0-4+1.7%1 1-010.1%1-113.0%1-28.4%1-33.6%1-4+1.5%2 2-04.6%2-15.9%2-23.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.7%3 3-01.4%3-11.8%3-21.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.2% 23.8% 4.20 +11.1%

Draw 28.8% 30.8% 3.25 -3.8%

Away win 43.0% 55.6% 1.80 -22.6%

Over 2.5 46.2% 48.8% 2.05 -5.3%

Over 3.5 18.0% 27.4% 3.65 -20.6%

BTTS 49.2% 54.1% 1.85 -9.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -13.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob49.2%

A 43% / xG 0.9-1.3 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 11.1%

#3 0–1 14.3%

#4 0–2 9.2%

#5 1–2 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Suduva0.9

Kauno Zalgiris1.3

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 18.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SUDUVA · PPG 2.14

KAUNO ZALGIRIS · PPG 2.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.14), Away EXCELLENT (2.33)

Win probability 1X2

Suduva (H) 28.2%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +11.1%

Draw 28.8%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -3.8%

Kauno Zalgiris (A) 43.0%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -22.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Suduva face Kauno Zalgiris in Lithuania - A Lyga on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Suduva a 28% chance, the draw 29% and Kauno Zalgiris 43%, so Kauno Zalgiris are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Suduva and 1.3 for Kauno Zalgiris (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Suduva are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 2.33 for Kauno Zalgiris. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +11.1%. This match finished 2-1.

Suduva vs Kauno Zalgiris Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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