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IF Karlstad B vs Ahlafors Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Norra Götaland - 9 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 11:00

IF Karlstad B

PPG 0.67 · HOME

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Ahlafors

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-17.0%0-26.3%0-33.8%0-4+2.5%1 1-05.7%1-110.2%1-29.1%1-35.4%1-4+3.7%2 2-04.1%2-17.3%2-26.6%2-33.9%2-4+2.7%3 3-02.0%3-13.5%3-23.2%3-31.9%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.8%4+-21.6%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.4% 30.8% 3.25 +11.8%

Draw 24.0% 26.7% 3.75 -6.0%

Away win 41.6% 52.6% 1.90 -21.0%

Over 2.5 61.4% 67.6% 1.48 -9.1%

Over 3.5 40.6% 45.5% 2.20 -10.7%

BTTS 59.7% 70.4% 1.42 -15.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -16.3%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob59.7%

A 42% / xG 1.4-1.8 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 2–1 7.3%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 0–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IF Karlstad B1.4

Ahlafors1.8

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 40.6%

Form & verdict PPG

IF KARLSTAD B · PPG 0.67

AHLAFORS · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.67) vs Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

IF Karlstad B (H) 34.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +11.8%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -6.0%

Ahlafors (A) 41.6%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -21.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

IF Karlstad B face Ahlafors in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IF Karlstad B a 34% chance, the draw 24% and Ahlafors 42%, so Ahlafors are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for IF Karlstad B and 1.8 for Ahlafors (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IF Karlstad B are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 1.00 for Ahlafors. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +11.8%. This match finished 1-4.

IF Karlstad B vs Ahlafors Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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