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M. Srbija vs Western Utd B Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 08:15

M. Srbija

PPG 2.00 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Western Utd B

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-13.9%0-23.0%0-31.5%0-4+0.8%1 1-05.4%1-18.3%1-26.4%1-33.3%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.8%2-18.9%2-26.9%2-33.5%2-4+1.9%3 3-04.1%3-16.3%3-24.9%3-32.5%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-15.5%4+-24.3%4+-32.2%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.2% 48.8% 2.05 +5.0%

Draw 23.8% 28.6% 3.50 -10.0%

Away win 25.0% 36.4% 2.75 -18.8%

Over 2.5 63.9% 71.4% 1.40 -10.5%

Over 3.5 50.1% 53.2% 1.88 -5.8%

BTTS 62.5% 75.2% 1.33 -16.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -15.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.5%

H 51% / xG 2.1-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.3%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 2–2 6.9%

#4 1–2 6.4%

#5 3–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

M. Srbija2.1

Western Utd B1.5

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 50.1%

Form & verdict PPG

M. SRBIJA · PPG 2.00

WESTERN UTD B · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=51.2%

Win probability 1X2

M. Srbija (H) 51.2%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +5.0%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -10.0%

Western Utd B (A) 25.0%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -18.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

M. Srbija face Western Utd B in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives M. Srbija a 51% chance, the draw 24% and Western Utd B 25%, so M. Srbija are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for M. Srbija and 1.5 for Western Utd B (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, M. Srbija are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.50 for Western Utd B. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +5.0%. This match finished 3-0.

M. Srbija vs Western Utd B Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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