Today / Australia - Victoria NPL / Altona Magic vs Hume City

Altona Magic vs Hume City Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 08:15

Altona Magic

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Hume City

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.1% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-110.0%0-29.3%0-35.8%0-4+4.1%1 1-05.7%1-110.6%1-29.9%1-36.2%1-4+4.4%2 2-03.0%2-15.6%2-25.3%2-33.3%2-4+2.3%3 3-01.1%3-12.0%3-21.9%3-31.2%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.7%4+-20.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.1% 30.3% 3.30 -14.3%

Draw 24.0% 27.8% 3.60 -8.2%

Away win 52.9% 51.3% 1.95 +3.1%

Over 2.5 59.1% 61.7% 1.62 -4.3%

Over 3.5 33.7% 40.0% 2.50 -15.8%

BTTS 54.6% 66.7% 1.50 -18.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -12.0%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob54.6%

A 53% / xG 1.1-1.9 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 1–2 9.9%

#3 0–2 9.3%

#4 0–1 10.0%

#5 0–0 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Altona Magic1.1

Hume City1.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ALTONA MAGIC · PPG 1.00

HUME CITY · PPG 1.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.83) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Altona Magic (H) 23.1%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -14.3%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -8.2%

Hume City (A) 52.9%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +3.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Altona Magic face Hume City in Australia - Victoria NPL on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Altona Magic a 23% chance, the draw 24% and Hume City 53%, so Hume City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Altona Magic and 1.9 for Hume City (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Altona Magic are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.83 for Hume City. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +3.1%. This match finished 1-3.

Altona Magic vs Hume City Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - Victoria NPL Predictions