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Campbelltown vs Sturt Lions Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 05:30

Campbelltown

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Sturt Lions

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 66.7% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-13.3%0-23.6%0-32.6%0-4+2.4%1 1-03.0%1-16.6%1-27.2%1-35.3%1-4+4.9%2 2-03.0%2-16.6%2-27.3%2-35.3%2-4+4.9%3 3-02.0%3-14.4%3-24.9%3-33.6%3-4+3.3%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-13.5%4+-23.9%4+-32.8%4+-4+2.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.9% 54.1% 1.85 -33.6%

Draw 22.6% 25.6% 3.90 -7.1%

Away win 41.5% 32.3% 3.10 +28.6%

Over 2.5 64.7% 75.2% 1.33 -14.0%

Over 3.5 60.7% 57.8% 1.73 +5.0%

BTTS 66.7% 75.2% 1.33 -11.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 22%

ROI -11.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob66.7%

A 42% / xG 2.0-2.2 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 6.6%

#2 2–2 7.3%

#3 1–2 7.2%

#4 2–1 6.6%

#5 2–3 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Campbelltown2.0

Sturt Lions2.2

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.7% · O3.5 PROB 60.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CAMPBELLTOWN · PPG 1.00

STURT LIONS · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.00) vs Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Campbelltown (H) 35.9%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -33.6%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -7.1%

Sturt Lions (A) 41.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +28.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Campbelltown face Sturt Lions in Australia - South Australia NPL on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Campbelltown a 36% chance, the draw 23% and Sturt Lions 42%, so Sturt Lions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Campbelltown and 2.2 for Sturt Lions (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Campbelltown are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.50 for Sturt Lions. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +28.6%. This match finished 2-0.

Campbelltown vs Sturt Lions Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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