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Adelaide Utd B vs West Torrens Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 05:30

Adelaide Utd B

PPG 1.00 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

West Torrens

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-13.9%0-24.6%0-33.6%0-4+3.7%1 1-02.9%1-16.8%1-28.0%1-36.3%1-4+6.5%2 2-02.5%2-15.9%2-27.0%2-35.5%2-4+5.6%3 3-01.5%3-13.4%3-24.0%3-33.2%3-4+3.3%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-12.2%4+-22.6%4+-32.0%4+-4+2.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.5% 46.5% 2.15 -32.3%

Draw 23.2% 26.7% 3.75 -7.8%

Away win 45.3% 38.5% 2.60 +17.8%

Over 2.5 63.9% 73.5% 1.36 -13.1%

Over 3.5 58.5% 55.6% 1.80 +5.3%

BTTS 63.0% 75.2% 1.33 -16.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 22%

ROI -11.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob63.0%

A 45% / xG 1.7-2.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.0%

#2 1–1 6.8%

#3 2–2 7.0%

#4 1–3 6.3%

#5 2–1 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Adelaide Utd B1.7

West Torrens2.4

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 58.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ADELAIDE UTD B · PPG 1.00

WEST TORRENS · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Adelaide Utd B (H) 31.5%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -32.3%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -7.8%

West Torrens (A) 45.3%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +17.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Adelaide Utd B face West Torrens in Australia - South Australia NPL on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Adelaide Utd B a 32% chance, the draw 23% and West Torrens 45%, so West Torrens are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Adelaide Utd B and 2.4 for West Torrens (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Adelaide Utd B are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 2.00 for West Torrens. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +17.8%. This match finished 3-0.

Adelaide Utd B vs West Torrens Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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