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Adelaide Comets vs Para Hills Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 05:30

Adelaide Comets

PPG 0.60 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Para Hills

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.7% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-13.6%0-21.8%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-08.1%1-18.3%1-24.3%1-31.5%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.5%2-19.7%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.4%3-17.5%3-23.9%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-07.4%4+-17.6%4+-23.9%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.1% 69.0% 1.45 -18.6%

Draw 22.5% 23.1% 4.33 -1.5%

Away win 21.4% 20.0% 5.00 +4.2%

Over 2.5 61.7% 71.4% 1.40 -13.6%

Over 3.5 43.2% 52.6% 1.90 -17.9%

BTTS 59.7% 66.7% 1.50 -10.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 22%

ROI -11.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob59.7%

H 56% / xG 2.3-1.0 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.7%

#2 1–1 8.3%

#3 2–0 9.5%

#4 3–1 7.5%

#5 3–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Adelaide Comets2.3

Para Hills1.0

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ADELAIDE COMETS · PPG 0.60

PARA HILLS · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Adelaide Comets (H) 56.1%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -18.6%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -1.5%

Para Hills (A) 21.4%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +4.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Adelaide Comets face Para Hills in Australia - South Australia NPL on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Adelaide Comets a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Para Hills 21%, so Adelaide Comets are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Adelaide Comets and 1.0 for Para Hills (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Adelaide Comets are averaging 0.60 points per game versus 0.00 for Para Hills. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +4.2%. This match finished 4-0.

Adelaide Comets vs Para Hills Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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