Today / Australia - Victoria NPL 2 / Port Melbourne vs Brunswick Juven

Port Melbourne vs Brunswick Juven Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 05:00

Port Melbourne

PPG 1.00 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Brunswick Juven

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 64.3% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-111.1%0-212.0%0-38.7%0-4+7.8%1 1-04.1%1-18.9%1-29.7%1-37.0%1-4+6.3%2 2-01.7%2-13.6%2-23.9%2-32.8%2-4+2.5%3 3-00.4%3-11.0%3-21.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.7% 16.7% 6.00 -10.7%

Draw 22.0% 21.7% 4.60 +0.7%

Away win 64.3% 74.1% 1.35 -13.2%

Over 2.5 59.1% 69.4% 1.44 -14.9%

Over 3.5 34.7% 49.5% 2.02 -29.9%

BTTS 51.6% 62.5% 1.60 -17.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -15.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob51.6%

A 64% / xG 0.8-2.2 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2✓ 12.0%

#2 1–1 8.9%

#3 0–1 11.1%

#4 1–2 9.7%

#5 0–3 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Port Melbourne0.8

Brunswick Juven2.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 34.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PORT MELBOURNE · PPG 1.00

BRUNSWICK JUVEN · PPG 1.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.71) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Port Melbourne (H) 13.7%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -10.7%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +0.7%

Brunswick Juven (A) 64.3%

ODDS 1.35 · IMPLIED 74.1% EV -13.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Port Melbourne face Brunswick Juven in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Port Melbourne a 14% chance, the draw 22% and Brunswick Juven 64%, so Brunswick Juven are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Port Melbourne and 2.2 for Brunswick Juven (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Port Melbourne are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.71 for Brunswick Juven. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +0.7%. This match finished 0-2.

Port Melbourne vs Brunswick Juven Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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