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R. Bijeljina vs FK Sarajevo Prediction— Bosnia - Premijer Liga

Regular Season - 29 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

R. Bijeljina

PPG 1.57 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

FK Sarajevo

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.5%0-19.3%0-24.1%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.4%1-112.7%1-25.6%1-31.7%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.9%2-18.7%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.5%3-14.0%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-11.8%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.2% 25.6% 3.90 +88.0%

Draw 27.6% 32.3% 3.10 -14.4%

Away win 24.2% 54.1% 1.85 -55.2%

Over 2.5 39.2% 42.0% 2.38 -6.7%

Over 3.5 19.1% — — —

BTTS 43.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -11.0%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob43.8%

H 48% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.4%

#2 1–1 12.7%

#3 0–0 10.5%

#4 2–0 9.9%

#5 0–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

R. Bijeljina1.4

FK Sarajevo0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.2% · O3.5 PROB 19.1%

Form & verdict PPG

R. BIJELJINA · PPG 1.57

FK SARAJEVO · PPG 0.86

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.57) > Away POOR (0.86)

Win probability 1X2

R. Bijeljina (H) 48.2%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +88.0%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -14.4%

FK Sarajevo (A) 24.2%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -55.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

R. Bijeljina face FK Sarajevo in Bosnia - Premijer Liga on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives R. Bijeljina a 48% chance, the draw 28% and FK Sarajevo 24%, so R. Bijeljina are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for R. Bijeljina and 0.9 for FK Sarajevo (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, R. Bijeljina are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 0.86 for FK Sarajevo. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +88.0%. This match finished 1-2.

R. Bijeljina vs FK Sarajevo Prediction— Bosnia - Premijer Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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