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Everton vs Coquimbo Unido Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Matchday 13 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 19:00

Everton

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDWW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Coquimbo Unido

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLLW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.8%0-114.0%0-26.6%0-32.1%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.3%1-113.5%1-26.4%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-06.9%2-16.5%2-23.1%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.2%3-12.1%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.2% 35.0% 2.86 +0.7%

Draw 33.1% 31.3% 3.20 +5.9%

Away win 31.7% 42.7% 2.34 -25.8%

Over 2.5 35.0% 47.6% 2.10 -26.5%

Over 3.5 12.7% 27.0% 3.70 -31.8%

BTTS 48.6% 55.6% 1.80 -12.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 81 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 0.5%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.6%

D 33% / xG 1.0-0.9 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.8%

#2 1–1✓ 13.5%

#3 1–0 14.3%

#4 0–1 14.0%

#5 2–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Everton1.0

Coquimbo Unido0.9

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 12.7%

Form & verdict PPG

EVERTON · PPG 1.33

COQUIMBO UNIDO · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

49%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Everton (H) 35.2%

ODDS 2.86 · IMPLIED 35.0% EV +0.7%

Draw 33.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +5.9%

Coquimbo Unido (A) 31.7%

ODDS 2.34 · IMPLIED 42.7% EV -25.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Everton face Coquimbo Unido in Chile - Primera División on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Everton a 35% chance, the draw 33% and Coquimbo Unido 32%, so Everton are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Everton and 0.9 for Coquimbo Unido (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Everton are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.50 for Coquimbo Unido. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +5.9%. This match finished 1-1.

Everton vs Coquimbo Unido Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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