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Farsta vs Haninge Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Södra Svealand - 9 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 18:00

Farsta

PPG 3.00 · HOME

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Haninge

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 69.8% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-12.1%0-21.5%0-30.8%0-4+0.4%1 1-03.8%1-15.7%1-24.3%1-32.2%1-4+1.1%2 2-05.3%2-18.0%2-26.0%2-33.0%2-4+1.6%3 3-04.9%3-17.4%3-25.6%3-32.8%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-06.8%4+-110.2%4+-27.7%4+-33.8%4+-4+2.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.1% 40.8% 2.45 +35.0%

Draw 22.7% 26.3% 3.80 -8.2%

Away win 22.3% 42.9% 2.33 -28.8%

Over 2.5 69.8% 76.9% 1.30 -9.3%

Over 3.5 62.1% 56.5% 1.77 +9.9%

BTTS 63.0% 78.1% 1.28 -19.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -7.4%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.0%

H 55% / xG 2.8-1.5 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.0%

#2 3–1 7.4%

#3 1–1 5.7%

#4 2–2 6.0%

#5 3–2 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Farsta2.8

Haninge1.5

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.8% · O3.5 PROB 62.1%

Form & verdict PPG

FARSTA · PPG 3.00

HANINGE · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=55.1%

Win probability 1X2

Farsta (H) 55.1%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +35.0%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -8.2%

Haninge (A) 22.3%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV -28.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Farsta face Haninge in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Farsta a 55% chance, the draw 23% and Haninge 22%, so Farsta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Farsta and 1.5 for Haninge (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Farsta are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.50 for Haninge. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +35.0%. This match finished 5-0.

Farsta vs Haninge Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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