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Ajax W vs AZ W Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie Women

Regular Season - 21 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 18:00

Ajax W

PPG 2.30 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

AZ W

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.30), Away AVERAGE (1.22) - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-11.1%0-20.5%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-04.2%1-14.0%1-21.9%1-30.6%1-4+0.2%2 2-07.3%2-16.9%2-23.3%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.4%3-18.0%3-23.8%3-31.2%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-017.7%4+-116.8%4+-28.0%4+-32.5%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.7% — — —

Draw 20.6% — — —

Away win 8.7% — — —

Over 2.5 69.8% — — —

Over 3.5 64.3% — — —

BTTS 58.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 76%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)3.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob58.8%

H 71% / xG 3.5-0.9 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 8.4%

#2 3–1✓ 8.0%

#3 4–0 7.3%

#4 2–0 7.3%

#5 4–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ajax W3.5

AZ W0.9

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.8% · O3.5 PROB 64.3%

Form & verdict PPG

AJAX W · PPG 2.30

AZ W · PPG 1.22

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.30), Away AVERAGE (1.22) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Ajax W (H) 70.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

AZ W (A) 8.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ajax W face AZ W in Netherlands - Eredivisie Women on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ajax W a 71% chance, the draw 21% and AZ W 9%, so Ajax W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.5 for Ajax W and 0.9 for AZ W (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ajax W are averaging 2.30 points per game versus 1.22 for AZ W. This match finished 3-1.

Ajax W vs AZ W Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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