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SSV Merten vs Porz Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein

Mittelrhein - 28 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 18:00

SSV Merten

PPG 2.31 · HOME

8 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Porz

PPG 0.92 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.6%0-10.8%0-20.5%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-02.4%1-12.9%1-21.8%1-30.7%1-4+0.3%2 2-04.6%2-15.6%2-23.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.9%3-17.3%3-24.5%3-31.8%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-015.6%4+-119.3%4+-212.0%4+-34.9%4+-4+2.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.0% — — —

Draw 20.4% — — —

Away win 8.6% — — —

Over 2.5 79.0% — — —

Over 3.5 74.8% — — —

BTTS 62.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 80%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 8-3

xG (home)3.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob62.5%

H 71% / xG 3.9-1.2 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.3%

#2 4–1 7.0%

#3 3–0 5.9%

#4 4–0 5.7%

#5 2–1 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SSV Merten3.9

Porz1.2

COMBINED 5.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.0% · O3.5 PROB 74.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SSV MERTEN · PPG 2.31

PORZ · PPG 0.92

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.31), Away POOR (0.92) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

SSV Merten (H) 71.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Porz (A) 8.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

SSV Merten face Porz in Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SSV Merten a 71% chance, the draw 20% and Porz 9%, so SSV Merten are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.9 for SSV Merten and 1.2 for Porz (5.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SSV Merten are averaging 2.31 points per game versus 0.92 for Porz. This match finished 8-3.

SSV Merten vs Porz Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein

Match Preview & Prediction

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