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IFK Skovde vs Kumla Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Norra Götaland - 9 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 17:30

IFK Skovde

PPG 2.25 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Kumla

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.2% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-13.9%0-22.2%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-07.6%1-18.7%1-24.9%1-31.9%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.6%2-19.7%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.4%3-17.3%3-24.1%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-06.1%4+-16.9%4+-23.9%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.9% 73.5% 1.36 -26.7%

Draw 23.6% 20.8% 4.80 +8.0%

Away win 22.4% 16.1% 6.20 +23.3%

Over 2.5 63.2% 72.5% 1.38 -12.8%

Over 3.5 43.8% 51.3% 1.95 -14.6%

BTTS 59.7% 64.5% 1.55 -7.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -16.3%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.7%

H 54% / xG 2.2-1.1 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.7%

#2 2–1✓ 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.6%

#4 3–1 7.3%

#5 3–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IFK Skovde2.2

Kumla1.1

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.2% · O3.5 PROB 43.8%

Form & verdict PPG

IFK SKOVDE · PPG 2.25

KUMLA · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.25) > Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

IFK Skovde (H) 53.9%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -26.7%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +8.0%

Kumla (A) 22.4%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV +23.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

IFK Skovde face Kumla in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IFK Skovde a 54% chance, the draw 24% and Kumla 22%, so IFK Skovde are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for IFK Skovde and 1.1 for Kumla (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IFK Skovde are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.75 for Kumla. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +23.3%. This match finished 2-1.

IFK Skovde vs Kumla Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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