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Staffanstorp Un vs Nosaby Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Södra Götaland - 9 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 17:00

Staffanstorp Un

PPG 1.00 · HOME

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Nosaby

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 62.0% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-17.2%0-27.6%0-35.3%0-4+4.5%1 1-04.4%1-19.2%1-29.6%1-36.7%1-4+5.7%2 2-02.8%2-15.9%2-26.1%2-34.3%2-4+3.6%3 3-01.2%3-12.5%3-22.6%3-31.8%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.6% 36.4% 2.75 -19.4%

Draw 23.5% 29.0% 3.45 -11.4%

Away win 51.9% 44.4% 2.25 +16.8%

Over 2.5 62.0% 66.7% 1.50 -7.0%

Over 3.5 43.3% 45.5% 2.20 -4.7%

BTTS 59.7% 71.4% 1.40 -16.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -27.8%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob59.7%

A 52% / xG 1.3-2.1 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 0–2 7.6%

#4 1–3 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Staffanstorp Un1.3

Nosaby2.1

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.0% · O3.5 PROB 43.3%

Form & verdict PPG

STAFFANSTORP UN · PPG 1.00

NOSABY · PPG 1.75

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.75) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Staffanstorp Un (H) 24.6%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -19.4%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -11.4%

Nosaby (A) 51.9%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +16.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Staffanstorp Un face Nosaby in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Staffanstorp Un a 25% chance, the draw 24% and Nosaby 52%, so Nosaby are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Staffanstorp Un and 2.1 for Nosaby (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Staffanstorp Un are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.75 for Nosaby. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +16.8%. This match finished 5-0.

Staffanstorp Un vs Nosaby Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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