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Solvesborg vs Osterlen Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Södra Götaland - 9 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 17:00

Solvesborg

PPG 0.75 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Osterlen

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-18.3%0-25.0%0-32.0%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.0%1-112.2%1-27.4%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.4%2-19.0%2-25.4%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.6%3-14.4%3-22.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.2%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.0% 48.8% 2.05 -5.7%

Draw 27.1% 27.8% 3.60 -1.5%

Away win 26.9% 33.9% 2.95 -12.4%

Over 2.5 52.6% 70.4% 1.42 -25.3%

Over 3.5 28.2% 50.0% 2.00 -26.2%

BTTS 54.6% 73.5% 1.36 -25.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -27.8%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 2–1✓ 9.0%

#3 0–0 6.8%

#4 1–0 10.0%

#5 2–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Solvesborg1.5

Osterlen1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SOLVESBORG · PPG 0.75

OSTERLEN · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.75) vs Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Solvesborg (H) 46.0%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -5.7%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -1.5%

Osterlen (A) 26.9%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -12.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Solvesborg face Osterlen in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Solvesborg a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Osterlen 27%, so Solvesborg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Solvesborg and 1.2 for Osterlen (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Solvesborg are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 1.25 for Osterlen. This match finished 2-1.

Solvesborg vs Osterlen Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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