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Karlshamn vs Vaxjo Norra Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Södra Götaland - 9 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 17:00

Karlshamn

PPG 0.00 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Vaxjo Norra

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 64.3% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a clear edge.

+11.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-113.7%0-214.1%0-39.6%0-4+7.9%1 1-04.4%1-19.0%1-29.2%1-36.3%1-4+5.2%2 2-01.4%2-12.9%2-23.0%2-32.1%2-4+1.7%3 3-00.3%3-10.6%3-20.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.7% 25.3% 3.95 -27.5%

Draw 22.0% 27.4% 3.65 -11.8%

Away win 64.3% 57.8% 1.73 +11.2%

Over 2.5 52.6% 65.4% 1.53 -19.5%

Over 3.5 28.6% 43.5% 2.30 -20.5%

BTTS 48.7% 67.6% 1.48 -27.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -27.8%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob48.7%

A 64% / xG 0.7-2.0 / O2.5 53% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 14.1%

#2 0–1 13.7%

#3 1–1 9.0%

#4 0–3 9.6%

#5 1–2✓ 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Karlshamn0.7

Vaxjo Norra2.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.6%

Form & verdict PPG

KARLSHAMN · PPG 0.00

VAXJO NORRA · PPG 2.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Karlshamn (H) 13.7%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -27.5%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -11.8%

Vaxjo Norra (A) 64.3%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV +11.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Karlshamn face Vaxjo Norra in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Karlshamn a 14% chance, the draw 22% and Vaxjo Norra 64%, so Vaxjo Norra are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Karlshamn and 2.0 for Vaxjo Norra (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Karlshamn are averaging 0.00 points per game versus 2.00 for Vaxjo Norra. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +11.2%. This match finished 1-2.

Karlshamn vs Vaxjo Norra Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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