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Ekranas vs TransINVEST Vil Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Regular Season - 11 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 16:00

Ekranas

PPG 0.75 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

TransINVEST Vil

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-16.9%0-25.1%0-32.5%0-4+1.3%1 1-07.5%1-111.0%1-28.1%1-34.0%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.9%2-18.7%2-26.4%2-33.1%2-4+1.6%3 3-03.1%3-14.6%3-23.4%3-31.7%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.6%4+-21.9%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.0% 50.0% 2.00 -20.0%

Draw 24.8% 28.6% 3.50 -7.9%

Away win 35.2% 33.3% 3.00 +5.6%

Over 2.5 59.1% 61.7% 1.62 -4.3%

Over 3.5 36.5% 41.2% 2.43 -11.3%

BTTS 59.7% 66.7% 1.50 -10.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -27.7%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob59.7%

H 40% / xG 1.6-1.5 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 8.1%

#4 2–2 6.4%

#5 0–0 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ekranas1.6

TransINVEST Vil1.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

EKRANAS · PPG 0.75

TRANSINVEST VIL · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.50) vs Home POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Ekranas (H) 40.0%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -20.0%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -7.9%

TransINVEST Vil (A) 35.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +5.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ekranas face TransINVEST Vil in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ekranas a 40% chance, the draw 25% and TransINVEST Vil 35%, so Ekranas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Ekranas and 1.5 for TransINVEST Vil (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ekranas are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 1.50 for TransINVEST Vil. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +5.6%. This match finished 4-0.

Ekranas vs TransINVEST Vil Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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