Today / Australia - Victoria NPL 2 / Northcote City vs Brunswick City

Northcote City vs Brunswick City Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Regular Season - 14 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 10:30

Northcote City

PPG 2.33 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Brunswick City

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 62.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-13.5%0-21.7%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-08.2%1-18.2%1-24.1%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.6%2-19.7%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.6%3-17.6%3-23.8%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-07.8%4+-17.8%4+-23.9%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.6% 65.4% 1.53 -10.3%

Draw 21.2% 25.0% 4.00 -9.1%

Away win 20.2% 22.7% 4.40 -6.7%

Over 2.5 62.3% 69.4% 1.44 -10.3%

Over 3.5 43.4% 48.5% 2.06 -10.6%

BTTS 57.8% 66.7% 1.50 -13.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -15.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob57.8%

H 59% / xG 2.4-1.0 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.7%

#2 2–0 9.6%

#3 1–1 8.2%

#4 3–1 7.6%

#5 3–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Northcote City2.4

Brunswick City1.0

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.4%

Form & verdict PPG

NORTHCOTE CITY · PPG 2.33

BRUNSWICK CITY · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs P(Home)=58.6%

Win probability 1X2

Northcote City (H) 58.6%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -10.3%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -9.1%

Brunswick City (A) 20.2%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -6.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Northcote City face Brunswick City in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Northcote City a 59% chance, the draw 21% and Brunswick City 20%, so Northcote City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Northcote City and 1.0 for Brunswick City (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Northcote City are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 0.80 for Brunswick City. This match finished 1-0.

Northcote City vs Brunswick City Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - Victoria NPL 2 Predictions