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Australia - Victoria NPL 2 logo Australia flag Australia - Victoria NPL 2 Regular Season - 14 John Cain Memorial Park· Melbourne Friday, May 22, 2026 10:30
Northcote City logo Northcote City PPG 2.33
1-0 MISS
Brunswick City logo Brunswick City PPG 0.80
Away· -6.7% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value
55% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 58.6%
Odds: 1.53 EV: -10.3%
Draw 21.2%
Odds: 4.00 EV: -9.1%
Away 20.2%
Odds: 4.40 EV: -6.7%
Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 62.3% Odds: 1.44 -10.3%
Over 3.5 43.4% Odds: 2.06 -10.6%
BTTS 57.8% Odds: 1.50 -13.3%
O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-1
2nd 2-0
3rd 1-1
4th 3-1
5th 3-0

Expected Goals (xG)

Northcote City
2.36
Brunswick City
1.00

Model Suggestion

Over 2.5 -10.3% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Over 2.5, but EV is -10.3% at these odds — not a recommended bet.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value
55%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs P(Home)=58.6%

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