Today / Australia - Victoria NPL 2 / Eltham Redbacks vs M. Victory B

Eltham Redbacks vs M. Victory B Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Regular Season - 14 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 10:30

Eltham Redbacks

PPG 2.33 · HOME

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

M. Victory B

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.8% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-12.3%0-21.8%0-30.9%0-4+0.5%1 1-03.9%1-16.1%1-24.8%1-32.5%1-4+1.4%2 2-05.2%2-18.1%2-26.3%2-33.3%2-4+1.8%3 3-04.6%3-17.2%3-25.6%3-32.9%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-05.8%4+-19.0%4+-27.0%4+-33.7%4+-4+2.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.6% 40.0% 2.50 +31.5%

Draw 22.7% 30.3% 3.30 -15.0%

Away win 24.7% 43.5% 2.30 -25.9%

Over 2.5 64.8% 71.4% 1.40 -9.3%

Over 3.5 60.7% 50.5% 1.98 +20.2%

BTTS 63.0% 73.5% 1.36 -14.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -15.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.0%

H 53% / xG 2.7-1.6 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.1%

#2 3–1 7.2%

#3 1–1 6.1%

#4 2–2 6.3%

#5 3–2 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Eltham Redbacks2.7

M. Victory B1.6

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.8% · O3.5 PROB 60.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ELTHAM REDBACKS · PPG 2.33

M. VICTORY B · PPG 0.86

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs P(Home)=52.6%

Win probability 1X2

Eltham Redbacks (H) 52.6%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +31.5%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -15.0%

M. Victory B (A) 24.7%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -25.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Eltham Redbacks face M. Victory B in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Eltham Redbacks a 53% chance, the draw 23% and M. Victory B 25%, so Eltham Redbacks are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Eltham Redbacks and 1.6 for M. Victory B (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Eltham Redbacks are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 0.86 for M. Victory B. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +31.5%. This match finished 3-3.

Eltham Redbacks vs M. Victory B Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - Victoria NPL 2 Predictions