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Australia - Victoria NPL 2 Friday, May 22, 2026 10:30 
Eltham Redbacks PPG 2.33 
M. Victory B PPG 0.86
Australia - Victoria NPL 2 Friday, May 22, 2026 10:30 Eltham Redbacks PPG 2.333-3 MISS
M. Victory B PPG 0.86Home· +31.5% 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
95% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Draw
✘
Goals Markets
Over 2.5 64.8% Odds: 1.40 -9.3%
Over 3.5 60.7% Odds: 1.98 +20.2%
BTTS 63.0% Odds: 1.36 -14.3%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔
Correct Score Picks
1st 2-1 ✘
2nd 3-1 ✘
3rd 1-1 ✘
4th 2-2 ✘
5th 3-2 ✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Eltham Redbacks 2.65
M. Victory B 1.56
Model Suggestion
Over 2.5 -9.3% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-9.3%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.
League Track Record ↗
Based on 49 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc 59%
O2.5/Under 65%
BTTS/No 61%
Score Hit 43%
ROI -40.0%
Bet Hit 43% (7 bets)
Verdict & Form
🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME 95%
Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs P(Home)=52.6%