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Dandenong City vs St. Albans Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Regular Season - 14 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 09:45

Dandenong City

PPG 1.29 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

St. Albans

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.7 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-17.5%0-24.1%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.8%1-111.9%1-26.5%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.4%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.5%3-15.0%3-22.8%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.8%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.0% 44.4% 2.25 +10.3%

Draw 26.1% 28.6% 3.50 -5.2%

Away win 24.9% 36.4% 2.75 -18.9%

Over 2.5 52.6% 58.8% 1.70 -10.6%

Over 3.5 28.4% 36.4% 2.75 -13.1%

BTTS 52.6% 64.5% 1.55 -18.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -12.0%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.6%

H 49% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1✓ 9.4%

#3 1–0 10.8%

#4 0–0 6.8%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dandenong City1.6

St. Albans1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

DANDENONG CITY · PPG 1.29

ST. ALBANS · PPG 1.43

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.29), Away AVERAGE (1.43)

Win probability 1X2

Dandenong City (H) 49.0%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +10.3%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -5.2%

St. Albans (A) 24.9%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -18.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dandenong City face St. Albans in Australia - Victoria NPL on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dandenong City a 49% chance, the draw 26% and St. Albans 25%, so Dandenong City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Dandenong City and 1.1 for St. Albans (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dandenong City are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.43 for St. Albans. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +10.3%. This match finished 2-1.

Dandenong City vs St. Albans Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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