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Green Gully vs Heidelberg Utd Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Regular Season - 14 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 09:30

Green Gully

PPG 0.17 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Heidelberg Utd

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-111.3%0-214.4%0-312.2%0-4+14.2%1 1-02.5%1-16.5%1-28.2%1-36.9%1-4+8.1%2 2-00.7%2-11.8%2-22.3%2-32.0%2-4+2.3%3 3-00.1%3-10.4%3-20.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 10.9% 10.0% 10.00 +5.4%

Draw 21.8% 18.5% 5.40 +10.6%

Away win 67.3% 82.0% 1.22 -17.9%

Over 2.5 61.4% 70.4% 1.42 -12.8%

Over 3.5 37.7% 48.8% 2.05 -22.7%

BTTS 48.6% 56.5% 1.77 -14.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -12.0%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob48.6%

A 67% / xG 0.6-2.5 / O2.5 61% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 14.4%

#2 0–3 12.2%

#3 0–1✓ 11.3%

#4 1–2 8.2%

#5 0–4 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Green Gully0.6

Heidelberg Utd2.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 37.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GREEN GULLY · PPG 0.17

HEIDELBERG UTD · PPG 1.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.86) vs Home POOR (0.17)

Win probability 1X2

Green Gully (H) 10.9%

ODDS 10.00 · IMPLIED 10.0% EV +5.4%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +10.6%

Heidelberg Utd (A) 67.3%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV -17.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Green Gully face Heidelberg Utd in Australia - Victoria NPL on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Green Gully a 11% chance, the draw 22% and Heidelberg Utd 67%, so Heidelberg Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Green Gully and 2.5 for Heidelberg Utd (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Green Gully are averaging 0.17 points per game versus 1.86 for Heidelberg Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +10.6%. This match finished 0-1.

Green Gully vs Heidelberg Utd Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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