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Tord vs Skara Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Norra Götaland - 9 ·Thursday, May 21, 2026, 17:00

Tord

PPG 0.75 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Skara

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-14.0%0-25.3%0-34.6%0-4+5.7%1 1-02.4%1-16.2%1-28.2%1-37.2%1-4+8.9%2 2-01.8%2-14.9%2-26.4%2-35.6%2-4+6.9%3 3-01.0%3-12.5%3-23.3%3-32.9%3-4+3.6%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.4%4+-21.8%4+-31.6%4+-4+2.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.2% 28.2% 3.55 -12.7%

Draw 21.6% 26.7% 3.75 -11.4%

Away win 56.2% 55.6% 1.80 +1.2%

Over 2.5 63.9% 69.0% 1.45 -7.3%

Over 3.5 60.2% 47.6% 2.10 +26.4%

BTTS 63.0% 71.4% 1.40 -11.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -16.3%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob63.0%

A 56% / xG 1.6-2.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2✓ 8.2%

#2 1–3 7.2%

#3 1–1 6.2%

#4 2–2 6.4%

#5 2–3 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tord1.6

Skara2.6

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 60.2%

Form & verdict PPG

TORD · PPG 0.75

SKARA · PPG 1.75

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.75) vs Home POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Tord (H) 22.2%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -12.7%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -11.4%

Skara (A) 56.2%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV +1.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tord face Skara in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland on Thursday, May 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tord a 22% chance, the draw 22% and Skara 56%, so Skara are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Tord and 2.6 for Skara (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tord are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 1.75 for Skara. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +26.4%. This match finished 1-2.

Tord vs Skara Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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