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Tranmere vs Bristol Rovers Prediction— England - League Two

Matchday 44 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Tranmere

PPG 0.81 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWLD

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Bristol Rovers

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWD

// Model verdict

BTTS 57% chance

Model probability 56.2% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-17.4%0-24.6%0-31.9%0-4+0.8%1 1-09.5%1-111.7%1-27.2%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.5%2-19.2%2-25.7%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.9%3-14.8%3-23.0%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.7%4+-21.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.3% 37.3% 2.68 +21.4%

Draw 24.8% 29.4% 3.40 -15.7%

Away win 29.9% 40.0% 2.50 -25.3%

Over 2.5 53.2% 51.3% 1.95 +3.7%

Over 3.5 30.9% 29.0% 3.45 +6.6%

BTTS 56.2% 57.8% 1.73 -2.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 61 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob56.2%

H 45% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–0 9.5%

#3 2–1 9.2%

#4 2–0 7.5%

#5 0–1 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tranmere1.6

Bristol Rovers1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.2% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

TRANMERE · PPG 0.81

BRISTOL ROVERS · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

57%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.81), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Tranmere (H) 45.3%

ODDS 2.68 · IMPLIED 37.3% EV +21.4%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -15.7%

Bristol Rovers (A) 29.9%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -25.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tranmere face Bristol Rovers in England - League Two on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tranmere a 45% chance, the draw 25% and Bristol Rovers 30%, so Tranmere are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Tranmere and 1.2 for Bristol Rovers (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tranmere are averaging 0.81 points per game versus 1.00 for Bristol Rovers. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +21.4%. This match finished 1-2.

Tranmere vs Bristol Rovers Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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