Today / England - League Two / Accrington ST vs Crawley Town

Accrington ST vs Crawley Town Prediction— England - League Two

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Accrington ST

PPG 1.31 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLD ·

UPCOMING

Crawley Town

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLD ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-18.3%0-24.8%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.6%1-112.3%1-27.1%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.8%2-19.1%2-25.3%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.8%3-14.5%3-22.6%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.3%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.2% 50.0% 2.00 -9.6%

Draw 24.7% 28.2% 3.55 -7.4%

Away win 30.1% 29.0% 3.45 +3.9%

Over 2.5 53.8% 56.5% 1.77 -4.8%

Over 3.5 31.7% 34.5% 2.90 -8.1%

BTTS 55.6% 61.7% 1.62 -9.9%

Home O1.5 39.9% 52.4% 1.91 -23.8%

Away O1.5 33.2% 37.0% 2.70 -10.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 61 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.6%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–0 10.6%

#4 2–0 7.8%

#5 1–2 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Accrington ST1.5

Crawley Town1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ACCRINGTON ST · PPG 1.31

CRAWLEY TOWN · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.31 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Accrington ST (H) 45.2%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -9.6%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -7.4%

Crawley Town (A) 30.1%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +3.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Accrington ST face Crawley Town in England - League Two on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Accrington ST a 45% chance, the draw 25% and Crawley Town 30%, so Accrington ST are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Accrington ST and 1.2 for Crawley Town (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Accrington ST are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 1.25 for Crawley Town. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +6.2%.

Accrington ST vs Crawley Town Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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