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Northampton vs Newport County Prediction— England - League Two

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Northampton

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDD ·

UPCOMING

Newport County

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDL ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-17.4%0-24.2%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.2%1-111.8%1-26.8%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.2%2-19.4%2-25.4%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.4%3-15.0%3-22.9%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.9%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% 58.1% 1.72 -20.0%

Draw 24.2% 28.2% 3.55 -8.5%

Away win 29.3% 20.6% 4.85 +25.3%

Over 2.5 53.8% 50.0% 2.00 +7.6%

Over 3.5 34.2% 28.6% 3.50 +19.7%

BTTS 55.9% 54.1% 1.85 +3.4%

Home O1.5 47.8% 54.1% 1.85 -11.6%

Away O1.5 33.2% 26.3% 3.80 +26.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 61 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.9%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 10.2%

#4 2–0 8.2%

#5 1–2 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Northampton1.6

Newport County1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 34.2%

Form & verdict PPG

NORTHAMPTON · PPG 1.36

NEWPORT COUNTY · PPG 0.80

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.45 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Northampton (H) 46.5%

ODDS 1.72 · IMPLIED 58.1% EV -20.0%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -8.5%

Newport County (A) 29.3%

ODDS 4.85 · IMPLIED 20.6% EV +25.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Northampton face Newport County in England - League Two on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Northampton a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Newport County 29%, so Northampton are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Northampton and 1.1 for Newport County (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Northampton are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 0.80 for Newport County. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +34.1%.

Northampton vs Newport County Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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