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Salford City vs Port Vale Prediction— England - League Two

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 11:30

Salford City

PPG 1.71 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLW ·

UPCOMING

Port Vale

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDL ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.1% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-18.8%0-24.3%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.9%1-112.6%1-26.1%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.2%2-19.0%2-24.4%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.4%3-14.3%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.1%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.1% 54.3% 1.84 -15.2%

Draw 26.6% 28.6% 3.50 -4.1%

Away win 27.3% 24.4% 4.10 +7.2%

Over 2.5 50.4% 51.8% 1.93 -2.7%

Over 3.5 28.7% 29.9% 3.35 -2.3%

BTTS 52.1% 56.5% 1.77 -7.8%

Home O1.5 39.9% 52.4% 1.91 -23.8%

Away O1.5 28.0% 30.3% 3.30 -4.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 61 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.1%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 12.9%

#3 0–0 9.0%

#4 2–0 9.2%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Salford City1.4

Port Vale1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SALFORD CITY · PPG 1.71

PORT VALE · PPG 1.07

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.46, combined xG 2.41 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Salford City (H) 46.1%

ODDS 1.84 · IMPLIED 54.3% EV -15.2%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -4.1%

Port Vale (A) 27.3%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +7.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Salford City face Port Vale in England - League Two on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Salford City a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Port Vale 27%, so Salford City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Salford City and 1.0 for Port Vale (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Salford City are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.07 for Port Vale. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +5.5%.

Salford City vs Port Vale Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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