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Rochdale vs Gillingham Prediction— England - League Two

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Rochdale

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLW ·

UPCOMING

Gillingham

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDD ·

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 51.9% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-18.7%0-24.3%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.9%1-112.6%1-26.1%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.3%2-19.0%2-24.4%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.4%3-14.3%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.1%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.1% 48.8% 2.05 -5.5%

Draw 26.6% 31.3% 3.20 -8.9%

Away win 27.3% 29.4% 3.40 -4.3%

Over 2.5 50.4% 48.1% 2.08 +4.8%

Over 3.5 28.7% 26.7% 3.75 +4.6%

BTTS 51.9% 57.1% 1.75 -9.2%

Home O1.5 39.9% 45.5% 2.20 -12.2%

Away O1.5 27.4% 30.8% 3.25 -6.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 61 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.9%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 12.9%

#3 0–0 9.0%

#4 2–0 9.3%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rochdale1.4

Gillingham1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ROCHDALE · PPG 1.50

GILLINGHAM · PPG 1.11

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

56%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.46, combined xG 2.41 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Rochdale (H) 46.1%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -5.5%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -8.9%

Gillingham (A) 27.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -4.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rochdale face Gillingham in England - League Two on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rochdale a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Gillingham 27%, so Rochdale are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Rochdale and 1.0 for Gillingham (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rochdale are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.11 for Gillingham. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +4.8%.

Rochdale vs Gillingham Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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