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Fleetwood Town vs Shrewsbury Prediction— England - League Two

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 11:30

Fleetwood Town

PPG 1.32 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDD ·

UPCOMING

Shrewsbury

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWL ·

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.3% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-17.4%0-23.0%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.5%1-111.7%1-24.7%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.5%2-19.3%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.1%3-14.9%3-22.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-12.8%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% 52.6% 1.90 +1.3%

Draw 24.3% 29.4% 3.40 -10.4%

Away win 22.4% 25.0% 4.00 -6.2%

Over 2.5 50.4% 50.0% 2.00 +0.8%

Over 3.5 28.7% 28.6% 3.50 +0.3%

BTTS 49.9% 56.5% 1.77 -11.7%

Home O1.5 47.5% 50.0% 2.00 -5.0%

Away O1.5 23.5% 30.3% 3.30 -13.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 61 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.9%

H 53% / xG 1.6-0.8 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.5%

#2 1–1 11.7%

#3 2–0 11.5%

#4 0–0 9.1%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fleetwood Town1.6

Shrewsbury0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FLEETWOOD TOWN · PPG 1.32

SHREWSBURY · PPG 0.70

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.78 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Fleetwood Town (H) 53.3%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV +1.3%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.4%

Shrewsbury (A) 22.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -6.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fleetwood Town face Shrewsbury in England - League Two on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fleetwood Town a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Shrewsbury 22%, so Fleetwood Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Fleetwood Town and 0.8 for Shrewsbury (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fleetwood Town are averaging 1.32 points per game versus 0.70 for Shrewsbury. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +1.2%.

Fleetwood Town vs Shrewsbury Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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