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Exeter City vs Walsall Prediction— England - League Two

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Exeter City

PPG 1.64 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLD ·

UPCOMING

Walsall

PPG 1.68 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWD ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-19.9%0-26.1%0-32.5%0-4+1.0%1 1-010.4%1-112.8%1-27.9%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.7%2-18.2%2-25.1%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.9%3-13.5%3-22.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.5%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.5% 40.0% 2.50 -3.8%

Draw 26.0% 29.9% 3.35 -7.7%

Away win 35.4% 37.3% 2.68 -5.1%

Over 2.5 51.4% 54.6% 1.83 -5.9%

Over 3.5 31.6% 33.3% 3.00 -5.2%

BTTS 54.6% 61.7% 1.62 -11.6%

Home O1.5 38.4% 44.4% 2.25 -13.6%

Away O1.5 36.8% 42.6% 2.35 -13.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 61 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

H 38% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 1–0 10.4%

#3 2–1 8.2%

#4 0–1 9.9%

#5 0–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Exeter City1.3

Walsall1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.4% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

EXETER CITY · PPG 1.64

WALSALL · PPG 1.68

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.06 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Exeter City (H) 38.5%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -3.8%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -7.7%

Walsall (A) 35.4%

ODDS 2.68 · IMPLIED 37.3% EV -5.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Exeter City face Walsall in England - League Two on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Exeter City a 39% chance, the draw 26% and Walsall 35%, so Exeter City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Exeter City and 1.2 for Walsall (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Exeter City are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.68 for Walsall.

Exeter City vs Walsall Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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