Today / England - League Two / Crewe vs York

Crewe vs York Prediction— England - League Two

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Crewe

PPG 1.77 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDD ·

UPCOMING

York

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWL ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-17.7%0-24.3%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.8%1-112.0%1-26.6%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.4%2-19.4%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.4%3-14.9%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.7%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% 36.4% 2.75 +27.6%

Draw 24.4% 30.3% 3.30 -11.7%

Away win 29.2% 40.3% 2.48 -16.6%

Over 2.5 53.8% 54.1% 1.85 -0.5%

Over 3.5 31.6% 32.3% 3.10 -2.0%

BTTS 54.6% 60.6% 1.65 -9.9%

Home O1.5 46.0% 41.7% 2.40 +10.4%

Away O1.5 33.2% 44.4% 2.25 -25.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 61 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 10.8%

#4 2–0 8.4%

#5 1–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Crewe1.6

York1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CREWE · PPG 1.77

YORK · PPG 1.21

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.45 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Crewe (H) 46.4%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +27.6%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -11.7%

York (A) 29.2%

ODDS 2.48 · IMPLIED 40.3% EV -16.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Crewe face York in England - League Two on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Crewe a 46% chance, the draw 24% and York 29%, so Crewe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Crewe and 1.1 for York (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Crewe are averaging 1.77 points per game versus 1.21 for York. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +29.1%.

Crewe vs York Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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