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Chesterfield vs Barnet Prediction— England - League Two

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Chesterfield

PPG 1.31 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLD ·

UPCOMING

Barnet

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDD ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-110.2%0-26.6%0-32.9%0-4+1.2%1 1-09.8%1-112.7%1-28.2%1-33.6%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.1%2-17.9%2-25.1%2-32.2%2-4+1.0%3 3-02.5%3-13.3%3-22.1%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.3%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.5% 46.3% 2.16 -21.2%

Draw 26.6% 27.8% 3.60 -2.5%

Away win 36.9% 33.3% 3.00 +10.7%

Over 2.5 52.0% 55.6% 1.80 -6.4%

Over 3.5 31.6% 33.3% 3.00 -5.2%

BTTS 54.6% 61.7% 1.62 -11.6%

Home O1.5 35.4% 50.0% 2.00 -29.2%

Away O1.5 39.3% 40.0% 2.50 -1.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 61 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.6%

A 37% / xG 1.2-1.3 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 2–1 7.9%

#3 1–0 9.8%

#4 0–0 7.9%

#5 0–1 10.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chesterfield1.2

Barnet1.3

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.0% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CHESTERFIELD · PPG 1.31

BARNET · PPG 1.75

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.05 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Chesterfield (H) 36.5%

ODDS 2.16 · IMPLIED 46.3% EV -21.2%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -2.5%

Barnet (A) 36.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +10.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chesterfield face Barnet in England - League Two on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chesterfield a 37% chance, the draw 27% and Barnet 37%, so Barnet are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Chesterfield and 1.3 for Barnet (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chesterfield are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 1.75 for Barnet. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +5.9%.

Chesterfield vs Barnet Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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