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Oldham vs Salford City Prediction— England - League Two

Matchday 44 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Oldham

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLW

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Salford City

PPG 1.48 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWDL

// Model verdict

Home 43% chance

Model probability 51.9% vs bookmaker-implied 39.7% — a clear edge.

+30.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.1%0-19.0%0-23.3%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.6%1-112.3%1-24.6%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.4%2-18.4%2-23.1%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.2%3-13.9%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-11.8%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.9% 39.7% 2.52 +30.8%

Draw 27.9% 30.3% 3.30 -7.9%

Away win 20.2% 37.3% 2.68 -45.9%

Over 2.5 35.4% 51.3% 1.95 -31.0%

Over 3.5 16.4% 29.4% 3.40 -44.2%

BTTS 39.1% 58.8% 1.70 -33.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob39.1%

H 52% / xG 1.4-0.7 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 39%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.6%

#2 1–1 12.3%

#3 0–0 12.1%

#4 2–0 11.4%

#5 0–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oldham1.4

Salford City0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.4% · O3.5 PROB 16.4%

Form & verdict PPG

OLDHAM · PPG 1.67

SALFORD CITY · PPG 1.48

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

43%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.67), Away AVERAGE (1.48)

Win probability 1X2

Oldham (H) 51.9%

ODDS 2.52 · IMPLIED 39.7% EV +30.8%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -7.9%

Salford City (A) 20.2%

ODDS 2.68 · IMPLIED 37.3% EV -45.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oldham face Salford City in England - League Two on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oldham a 52% chance, the draw 28% and Salford City 20%, so Oldham are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Oldham and 0.7 for Salford City (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 39% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oldham are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.48 for Salford City. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +30.8%. This match finished 1-2.

Oldham vs Salford City Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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