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Notts County vs Barnet Prediction— England - League Two

Regular Season - 44 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Notts County

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Barnet

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.2% vs bookmaker-implied 43.1% — a clear edge.

+30.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-16.1%0-23.0%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.0%1-110.9%1-25.5%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.9%2-19.9%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.9%3-15.9%3-23.0%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-14.0%4+-22.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.2% 43.1% 2.32 +30.4%

Draw 23.0% 30.3% 3.30 -24.1%

Away win 20.7% 33.6% 2.98 -38.3%

Over 2.5 53.1% 50.0% 2.00 +6.2%

Over 3.5 30.8% 28.6% 3.50 +7.8%

BTTS 52.7% 57.8% 1.73 -8.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 9.4%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.7%

H 56% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 11.0%

#2 1–1 10.9%

#3 2–0 9.9%

#4 2–1 9.9%

#5 0–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Notts County1.8

Barnet1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 30.8%

Form & verdict PPG

NOTTS COUNTY · PPG 2.00

BARNET · PPG 1.62

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away GOOD (1.62)

Win probability 1X2

Notts County (H) 56.2%

ODDS 2.32 · IMPLIED 43.1% EV +30.4%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -24.1%

Barnet (A) 20.7%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV -38.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Notts County face Barnet in England - League Two on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Notts County a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Barnet 21%, so Notts County are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Notts County and 1.0 for Barnet (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Notts County are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.62 for Barnet. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +30.4%. This match finished 1-2.

Notts County vs Barnet Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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