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Harrogate vs Colchester Utd Prediction— England - League Two

Matchday 44 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Harrogate

PPG 0.57 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Colchester Utd

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.1%0-116.1%0-210.7%0-34.8%0-4+2.1%1 1-09.4%1-112.6%1-28.4%1-33.7%1-4+1.7%2 2-03.7%2-14.9%2-23.3%2-31.4%2-4+0.6%3 3-01.0%3-11.3%3-20.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.9% 33.3% 3.00 -34.3%

Draw 28.4% 29.4% 3.40 -3.4%

Away win 49.8% 44.2% 2.26 +12.6%

Over 2.5 35.3% 50.0% 2.00 -29.4%

Over 3.5 16.3% 27.8% 3.60 -41.3%

BTTS 39.8% 57.1% 1.75 -30.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 61 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob39.8%

A 50% / xG 0.8-1.3 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 16.1%

#2 1–1 12.6%

#3 0–0 12.1%

#4 0–2 10.7%

#5 1–0✓ 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Harrogate0.8

Colchester Utd1.3

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.3% · O3.5 PROB 16.3%

Form & verdict PPG

HARROGATE · PPG 0.57

COLCHESTER UTD · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

50%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.29) vs Home POOR (0.57)

Win probability 1X2

Harrogate (H) 21.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -34.3%

Draw 28.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -3.4%

Colchester Utd (A) 49.8%

ODDS 2.26 · IMPLIED 44.2% EV +12.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Harrogate face Colchester Utd in England - League Two on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Harrogate a 22% chance, the draw 28% and Colchester Utd 50%, so Colchester Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Harrogate and 1.3 for Colchester Utd (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Harrogate are averaging 0.57 points per game versus 1.29 for Colchester Utd. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +12.6%. This match finished 1-0.

Harrogate vs Colchester Utd Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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