Today / Brazil - Brasileiro Women / Ferroviaria W vs Vitória BA W

Ferroviaria W vs Vitória BA W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Regular Season - 11 ·Monday, May 18, 2026, 22:00

Ferroviaria W

PPG 2.20 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Vitória BA W

PPG 0.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.20), Away POOR (0.17) - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-11.8%0-20.5%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-09.9%1-15.1%1-21.3%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-014.0%2-17.3%2-21.9%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-013.3%3-16.9%3-21.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-018.8%4+-19.8%4+-22.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 71.2% — —

Draw 20.5% — —

Away win 8.3% — —

Over 2.5 61.7% — —

Over 3.5 43.2% — —

BTTS 48.6% — —

Win probability 1X2

Ferroviaria W (H) 71.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Vitória BA W (A) 8.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -67.8%

Bet Hit 17%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob48.6%

H 71% / xG 2.8-0.5 / O2.5 62% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 14.0%

#2 3–0 13.3%

#3 4–0 9.4%

#4 1–0 9.9%

#5 2–1 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ferroviaria W2.8

Vitória BA W0.5

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FERROVIARIA W · PPG 2.20

VITÓRIA BA W · PPG 0.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.20), Away POOR (0.17) - Strong consensus

Match Preview & Prediction

Ferroviaria W face Vitória BA W in Brazil - Brasileiro Women on Monday, May 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ferroviaria W a 71% chance, the draw 21% and Vitória BA W 8%, so Ferroviaria W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Ferroviaria W and 0.5 for Vitória BA W (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ferroviaria W are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 0.17 for Vitória BA W. This match finished 2-0.

Ferroviaria W vs Vitória BA W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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