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America M. W vs Atletico MG W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 18:00

America M. W

PPG 0.60 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Atletico MG W

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 56.3% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.0%0-120.3%0-213.7%0-36.2%0-4+2.8%1 1-08.2%1-111.1%1-27.5%1-33.4%1-4+1.5%2 2-02.2%2-13.0%2-22.0%2-30.9%2-4+0.4%3 3-00.4%3-10.5%3-20.4%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.9% 21.1% 4.75 -17.5%

Draw 28.9% 29.9% 3.35 -1.9%

Away win 56.3% 58.8% 1.70 -4.3%

Over 2.5 35.0% 43.5% 2.30 -19.5%

Over 3.5 12.5% 23.1% 4.33 -27.5%

BTTS 46.2% 47.6% 2.10 -3.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -30.5%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 50%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob46.2%

A 56% / xG 0.5-1.4 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 20.3%

#2 0–0 15.0%

#3 0–2✓ 13.7%

#4 1–1 11.1%

#5 1–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

America M. W0.5

Atletico MG W1.4

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 12.5%

Form & verdict PPG

AMERICA M. W · PPG 0.60

ATLETICO MG W · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.60) vs Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

America M. W (H) 14.9%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -17.5%

Draw 28.9%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -1.9%

Atletico MG W (A) 56.3%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -4.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

America M. W face Atletico MG W in Brazil - Brasileiro Women on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives America M. W a 15% chance, the draw 29% and Atletico MG W 56%, so Atletico MG W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for America M. W and 1.4 for Atletico MG W (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, America M. W are averaging 0.60 points per game versus 1.00 for Atletico MG W. This match finished 0-2.

America M. W vs Atletico MG W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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